Championship Weekend Preview

 Getting to this a little bit later in the week than I would like, I have been busy revelling in Michigan's absolute undressing of Ohio State. A lot of trash talk to be had, an every morning greeting to Morgan reminding him of his dumpster fire of a team's failures. But alas, I must continue my run of 17-4 on my picks so far (we got a late start but my genius is obviously on full display). It's Conference Championship weekend, playoff positions are on the line, legacies to be cemented and a chance to finally take home the Big Ten title again for the Michigan Wolverines. 

Kicking off tonight:

Conference USA Championship
Western Kentucky vs UTSA - Now I have a lot of love for the WKU Hilltoppers (8-4, 7-1) having attended WKU in 2006 and 2007 before joining the military. UTSA (11-1, 7-1) was having a Cinderella like season before it all came crashing down last weekend when they lost for the first time this season, 42-23 vs North Texas. This game features a rematch from October 9th when the two teams faced off in an offensive display in San Antonio. The game produced 1,234 yards and 98 points as UTSA took down the Hilltoppers 52-46. I expect another offensive explosion in the rematch; Western Kentucky is the #2 scoring offense in the country and the #1 passing offense in the country. Their quarterback Bailey Zappe has thrown for 4,968 yards and 52 touchdowns this season, and he has no shortage of athletes on the outside. Wide receiver Jerreth Sterns has caught 127 passes for 1,539 yards and 12 touchdowns and his partner Mitchell Tinsley has caught 71 passes for 1,126 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Roadrunners have a more balanced offense and are led by dual-threat quarterback Frank Harris. The Boston College transfer has completed 66% of his passes for 2,688 yards and 25 touchdowns as well as running for 484 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is joined in the backfield by runningback Sincere McCormick who has rushed for back to back 1,000 yard seasons as well as 12 touchdowns this year. Points will come a plenty in this game, but as the old saying goes it's always harder to beat a team the second team around. I'm taking Zappe and the high powered WKU offense to pull off the win. WKU 55 - UTSA 48.

Pac 12 Championship
(10) Oregon vs (17) Utah - Another rematch from the regular season. Utah (9-3, 8-1) gave Oregon (10-2, 7-2) a beat down 38-7 just two weeks ago. Same rules kind of apply as the Conference USA championship with it always being harder to win the second time around - but that was a close game, and the Oregon vs Utah game was over by halftime. Utah held Oregon to 63 yards on the ground and racked up 208 rushing yards and four touchdowns of their own. The Oregon win in Columbus seems like years ago now and it's hard to think that Cristobal and co. have managed to come up with a game plan that can erase a 31 point difference, especially with his name being thrown around for his alma mater's head coaching job in Miami. Utah ends Oregon's hopes of a Rose Bowl birth, a little closer than the previous match up. Utah 31 - Oregon 17.

Saturday

Big 12 Championship
(9) Baylor vs (5) Oklahoma State - The Big 12 kicks off the Saturday festivities with two teams who are still in the running for a Playoff spot. The 3rd rematch of Championship weekend and Baylor (10-2, 7-2) is still wondering who will play quarterback this Saturday. Starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon has been nursing a hamstring injury and has missed the last game and a half and is questionable for Saturday's game. If he is unable to go then Baylor's title hopes will fall on the arm of Freshman Blake Shapen. He has played adequately in relief for Bohanon, not forcing the ball and limiting mistakes. But he doesn't wow anyone either. Baylor is going to have to rely on their #8 ranked rushing attack and 17th ranked defense either way. A tough ask going up against Oklahoma State (11-1, 8-1) and their #6 ranked scoring defense and #5 rushing defense. The Cowboys are far more balanced on offense then they have been in the past to control the game and play elite defense, which is quite the change from Gundy teams of old (in 2011, OSU's last Big 12 title, they had the #2 scoring and passing offense but the 58th ranked rushing offense and 61st ranked defense). In the last matchup, OSU held Baylor to a season low 14 points in their 24-14 win. OSU's dual threat quarterback Spencer Sanders and runningback Jaylen Warren will undoubtedly try to slow the game down like they did in their previous matchup, rushing for a combined 201 yards and two touchdowns. Baylor will not only need Bohanon to play, but to play a lot better then he did the last time, he completed less then 50% of his passes and only managed 13 yards on nine carries, a far cry from his 301 yards and nine touchdowns he's produced on the ground in his other games. Oklahoma State keeps their playoff dreams alive with a win. OSU 27 - Baylor 10.

MAC Championship
Kent State vs Northern Illinois - Que the broken record, rematch #4 has Kent State (7-5, 6-2) going up against Northern Illinois (8-4, 6-2) in the Mac Championship game. The last time these two met, Kent State scored 31 points in the second quarter, Northern Illinois tried their best to come back but fell just short as Kent State won 52-47 in another offensive shoot out. Kent State ran for 360 yards and five touchdowns. They also threw the ball for 322 yards. Not to be outdone Northern Illinois had over 600 total yards as well, mostly through the air. Michigan State transfer quarterback Rocky Lombardi threw for 532 yards and three touchdowns, most of it going to wide receiver Trayvon Rudolph who had 24 catches for 309 yards and all three touchdowns. I expect a similar result this time around. Both offenses have playmakers all over the field and both defenses are ranked in the back half in the country (NIU #120, Kent State #103). I'm banking on the arm and legs of Kent State quarterback to repeat his 394 total yards and four total touchdown performance from their last matchup. Kent State 54 - Northern Illinois 45.

Mountain West Championship
Utah State vs San Diego State - Finally, a championship game that isn't a rematch. But it will be quick I'm afraid. Brady Hoke is back at his old stomping grounds San Diego State (11-1, 7-1) and is back to his winning ways in the sunshine state. His Aztecs are doing it this time around with defense, they have the #9 scoring defense and #2 rushing defense. Utah State does their damage mostly through the air with quarterback Logan Bonner (3,242 yards and 32 touchdowns). San Diego State is one the better pass rushing teams in the nation though, totaling 37 sacks on the season. I'm taking the Aztec's defense and running game. SDSU 24 - Utah State 14.

Sunbelt Conference Championship
Appalachian State vs Louisiana - Rematch #5, Louisiana (11-1, 8-0) has had an amazing season. Head Coach Billy Napier was rewarded with his three straight 10+ winning seasons at Louisiana by becoming the new head coach for the Florida Gators and will be coaching his last game for the Ragin' Cajuns. Stats aren't going to matter much, even more so considering the last time these two met in week six, Louisiana put a whooping on Appalachian State (10-2, 7-1) 41-13. An emotional send off for Napier gets Louisiana to 12-1. Louisiana 35 Appalachian State 21. 

SEC Championship
(3) Alabama vs (1) Georgia - The heavy weight battle on championship weekend takes place in Atlanta. Georgia (12-0, 8-0)  has not been tested all season, they have the #1 scoring defense giving up only 6.9 points per game. And the offense has put up numbers all season, ranked #6 in the nation in scoring offense. The Bulldogs have only faced one offense in the top 25 nationally however, in comes Alabama (11-1, 7-1) who is ranked 5th in the nation in scoring offense and led by Heisman candidate quarterback Bryce Young. Alabama has been Georgia's curse of late, the Crimson Tide have won the last 6 meetings, including both the SEC title game and National Championship game in 2018 where Georgia (as only an Atlanta team could) blew a lead late. Nick Saban is also 24-1 against his old assistants, Kirby Smart has three of those losses already. However that mystique has been tarnished since that one loss came this year at the hands of Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M. This game really comes down to whether or not you believe Alabama's offense is as good as advertised, or if Georgia's defense is. I personally believe it's neither and both teams are overrated, but Kirby Smart gets over the hump. Georgia 24 - Alabama 21. 

AAC Championship
(21) Houston vs (4) Cincinnati - Cincy (12-0, 8-0) needs to have a huge game if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. Even as an undefeated team that beat #6 Notre Dame they have needed help just to get to #4. And with Oklahoma State breathing down their neck there is no room for error. A loss and their dreams are dashed, a close win and Oklahoma State might jump them. They are one of the most complete teams, they are ranked #8 in scoring offense and #3 in scoring defense. But they have struggled to put inferior teams away, which is where the argument against them making the playoffs begins. When you're a group of five team you can't have any chinks in the armor. Houston (11-1, 8-0) is a formidable opponent in the way of Cincinnati's playoff dream. They are the 19th best scoring defense and right behind Cincy as the 9th best scoring offense. In a match up like this I look to see who has the best playmakers, and it's hard to bet against Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder. The 4 year starter is 43-6 in his career and can beat you with both his arm and his legs. This year he has some help in the backfield in Alabama transfer Jerome Ford who eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark this season and has added 18 touchdowns. That combo gets my vote vs almost anyone. But is it enough to earn a playoff spot? Cincinnati 35 - Houston 21.

ACC Championship
(15) Pittsburgh vs (16) Wake Forest - Easiest pick of the bunch. Pittsburgh's (10-2, 7-1) Kenny Pickett and Jordan Anderson vs the 49th ranked passing defense? Sam Hartman and Wake (10-2, 7-1) will score, but they won't be able to keep up. Pittsburgh 45 - Wake 35.

Big Ten Championship
(13) Iowa vs (2) Michigan - Iowa (10-2, 7-2) has a solid defense thank ranks 9th in the nation in scoring defense and 14th in the country in rushing defense. But their weakness is in the back end where they rank 38th. Michigan (11-1, 7-1) is a ground and pound team, but when they went up against the #1 ranked run defense in Wisconsin, quarterback Cade McNamara showed he could beat you as well throwing for 2 scores in their 38-17 win. Offensively Iowa is inept. Wisconsin and Purdue held them seven points each, they rank 108th in rushing offense, 110th in passing offense and 87th in scoring offense. Meanwhile Michigan is the 8th best scoring defense (and held the #1 offense to 27 points last week), 23rd ranked passing defense and 21st ranked rushing defense. Oh yeah, and Iowa has given up the most sacks in the Big Ten, Michigan has Heisman candidate defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (13 sacks) and David Ojabo (11 sacks).....Michigan by a lot. Michigan 35 - Iowa 10.