Big Ten Week 11 Preview

It's almost time for another week of Big Ten football, and we have some potential good ones on the docket this time around. Both Ryan and Morgan bounced back with 5-2 records last week, I am still leading the charge though. Back to back 6-1 weeks has me sitting pretty at 12-2, and we're going into the championship rounds. 

(6) Michigan @ Penn State - Kicking off with one of the big games of the week, Michigan (8-1) travels to Happy Valley to take on the Nittany Lions (6-3). This is a huge game for Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines, after last week's loss for Michigan State at Purdue, Michigan is now right back in the running for the Big Ten East crown. A loss here could all but end those hopes, at the very least it would take their fate out of their hands.  This game is going to come down to a few key factors, 3rd down efficiency, red zone efficiency and Jahan Dotson. Michigan's defense is stellar in a lot of areas, they put pressure on the quarterback as well as anyone in the country. The run defense is adequate, ranking 30th in the nation and the pass defense has been great, currently ranked 8th in the nation. Where the defense has struggled is giving up big plays, Jahan Dotson is a big play threat anytime he touches the ball. Through nine games he already has 71 receptions for 932 yards and nine touchdowns. Michigan is going to have to bracket him because they don't have a true cover corner who can match his speed. Dax Hill can, but he's shown this year that he is a true safety and lacks the ball skills to be a great cover corner. Penn State's defense on the other hand, gives up quite a lot of yards per game, they are ranked 40th in the nation giving up 350 yards a game. They are the definition of bend but don't break though. With the 10th best scoring defense in the nation, teams have reached the Penn State 20 yard line 29 times this season and they've only given up eight touchdowns. Scoring touchdowns in the red zone has been Michigan's Achilles heel this year. Like Purdue vs Michigan State last week, this is a match up where one team does something very well that their opponent is very bad in that area. Michigan has not shown that they have an answer to the red zone problem through nine game, for that reason, and it pains me to do this, Penn State 24 Michigan 19. 

Northwestern @ (18) Wisconsin - After starting 1-3, Wisconsin (6-3) has found a winning formula - have the #1 defense in the country, play bad teams and run the football. The Badgers have won five straight, during which they are averaging 270 yards and three touchdowns per game on the ground. Northwestern (3-6) is ranked 124th in the country in rushing defense, they qualify as one of those bad teams. Wisconsin 45 Northwestern 10.

Rutgers @ Indiana - This is one of those games where you just want to root for both teams to have a good game. Indiana (2-7) has lost five straight, after such high hopes going into the year they have yet to win a game in the Big Ten (0-6). Rutgers has lost five of their last six, with their only win (and only win in the conference) coming against Illinois two weeks ago. Neither team does a whole lot well on the offensive side of the ball. Rutgers is 114th in scoring offense and Indiana is 117th. Rutgers has the slight edge on defense, but I think Indiana's freshman quarterback Donaven McCulley's is going to be the X-factor in this game. He struggled vs Michigan last week, but they have one of the best defenses in the country. The week prior vs Maryland, a defense more on par with that of Rutgers, the freshman threw for 242 yards and two touchdowns. I think he does just enough with his arms and legs and Indiana cracks the win column in conference play, Rutgers does score more than 13 points for only the second time in Big Ten play though. Indiana 24 Rutgers 17.

 (19) Purdue @ (4) Ohio State - The only match-up between two top 25 teams in the Big Ten this weekend features the giant killers of Purdue (6-3) vs the juggernaut of the Big Ten Ohio State (8-1). Purdue has already taken down two top five teams in Iowa on the road and Michigan State last weekend at home. The Boilermakers have the #8 passing offense in the country, and they've used it to perfection in both of those big games, throwing for 375 yards and two touchdowns vs Iowa and a beastly 536 yards and three touchdowns against Michigan State last week. Which was predicted here at TwoBlueandOSU by the way. Purdue has one of the best wide receivers in the country in David Bell, Bell has 64 receptions for 1,003 yards and five touchdowns this year. Sounds like another recipe for the third top five team to go down to Purdue yeah? Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, the Buckeyes are not Michigan State nor Iowa. Their passing defense ranks 21st in the nation, not 130th like the Spartans. Also, while the Buckeyes have shown themselves to be mortal offensively the last two weeks, they are still the #2 ranked scoring offense in the country. And to one up Purdue, they are the 6th best passing offense with a plethora of top wide receivers to spread the ball to. Lightning may have struck twice this year, but not thrice. Ohio State 41 Purdue 21. (Editor's note: If Purdue does pull off this upset as well, I will get a Purdue back tattoo to commemorate their wins vs MSU and OSU).

Minnesota @ (20) Iowa - This may be the most intriguing game in the Big Ten this weekend. The battle for the Floyd of Rosedale is also a battle to stay in the Big Ten West Division race. Four teams are currently tied at 4-2, Minnesota and Iowa being two of them. Iowa is in a bit of an offensive slump, even for their low offensive standards. After losing two games in a row where they only scored seven points each game, they took down Northwestern but it was a putrid 17-12 victory against one of the worst defenses in the country. Minnesota seemed like it was on its way to Big Ten West glory, winning four in a row and committing to the run. In comes Illinois - and the streak was over. Illinois held Minnesota to only six points and won 14-6. Nobody wants to win the Big Ten West apparently. After giving their two headed freshman running backs plenty of carries in back to back 100 yard games for each, Minnesota got away from the run for some reason and put the ball into quarterback Tanner Morgan's hands. He rewarded them by throwing two costly interceptions. If Minnesota is to win out and win the west, Tanner Morgan has to be the game manager that he was during their four game winning streak and the ball needs to stay on the ground. That's when Minnesota are at their best. It may be tough sledding against Iowa's 7th ranked rushing defense, but Tanner Morgan is not going to win it for the Golden Gophers. Iowa just can't seem to get the offense going, a change at quarterback last week was enough for the win - but it wasn't pretty. If Ferentz doesn't get things going, especially in the passing game that has been non-existent this season, he's going to find his team going from #2 in the country at the start of October, to the New Era Pinstripe Bowl. I think last week was another wake up call for P.J. Fleck and his Gophers and they do just enough offensively in a slugfest. Minnesota 13 Iowa 10. 

Maryland @ (7) Michigan State - If Michigan State's Twitter handle wasn't trying to fool folks, it looks like the Spartans will don their neon green uniforms this weekend. They are the most god awful uniforms I have ever seen. Michigan State (8-1) is coming off their first loss of the season at the hands of Purdue. The Boilermakers did exactly what I thought they would do and threw the ball all over the field. Maryland (5-4) has a quarterback in Taulia Tagovailoa who can definitely do that as well. He has passed for 2,755 yards and 18 touchdowns with a 70% completion percentage. They also have playmakers on the outside in former five star wide receiver recruit Rakim Jarrett and Dontay Demus. Demus is averaging 18.1 yards a catch and both can take it 60 yards to the house, especially against a secondary as bad as Michigan State's which now ranks dead last in the nation in passing yards allowed per game. Maryland has a chance in this game, but Michigan State has Kenneth Walker - and Maryland's defense isn't something to write home about either. Maryland puts up yards and points but Michigan State wins. Michigan State 41 Maryland 34. 


Zak (12-2) - Go Blue!       Ryan (7-7) - Go Blue!         Morgan (8-6) - O-H!

Penn State                          Michigan                             Penn State

Wisconsin                          Wisconsin                            Wisconsin

Indiana                               Indiana                                 Indiana

Ohio State                          Purdue                                 Ohio State

Minnesota                          Iowa                                     Iowa

Michigan State                   Michigan State                    Michigan State




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