Big Ten Week 10 Preview

 Week 9 is behind us, and all Michigan fans are thankful for that. None more so thn Ryan, who not only had to watch our beloved Wolverines collapse to in state rival Michigan State but who also went 2-5 in his picks. Don't fret Ryan, it's not how you start, it's how you finish right? Even if your start is historically bad! Looking ahead to this weekend's match ups it looks like it should be a calm, by the book slate of games in the Big 10. But if 2021 has taught us anything, nothing in college football is certain. 

Ohio State @ Nebraska - The Frost curse continues in Lincoln. Nebraska lost their 3rd game a row and 6th overall by a one possession score, falling to Purdue 28-23 thanks in large part to Adrian Martinez four interception day. Nebraska has already played three top 10 teams in Oklahoma, Michigan State and Michigan, losing all three by a combined 13 points. With #5 Ohio State coming to town everything points to a 4th loss to a top 10 team on the horizon for Frost and co. Ohio State meanwhile is coming off of a nine point win in Happy Valley, however the Buckeyes struggled scoring touchdowns in the red zone, settling for four field goals out of five attempts inside of Penn State's 20 yard line. Ryan Day will look to bounce back in a big way against the Corn Huskers offensively, but the black shirts of Nebraska's defense managed to hold Oklahoma's high powered offense to 214 yards passing and Michigan State's Heisman hopeful running Back Kenneth Walker to 61 yards and zero touchdowns. Ohio State is a different beast though, especially after games when the offense under performs. OSU 42 Neb 13.

Illinois @ Minnesota - The Golden Gophers continued utilizing their freshman one-two punch in the backfield, Mar'keise Irving and Ky Thomas both eclipsed the 100 yard mark for the second straight game and Minnesota ran for 308 total yards in their 41-14 victory over Northwestern. PJ Fleck seems to have turned his team around following their early season loss to Bowling Green, Minnesota has now won four straight, are 6-2 and ranked #20 in the nation. Illinois on the other hand followed up their nine overtime stunner at Penn State with a major let down losing to Rutgers 20-14. At this point I am not even sure Brett Bielema knows what he has in his team. Since the start of October they have looked offensively inept, averaging just 14.5 points per game, not a good time to be playing a surging Minnesota team who has the 11th best defense in the country. Minnesota keeps rowing their boat to a 5th straight victory: Minnesota 35 Illinois 14

Michigan State @ Purdue - Now this one intrigues me, yes Michigan State just came back from 16 down to beat my Wolverines 37-33, yes I am bias and bitter, but I promise I am taking that into account while doing this breakdown. Just hear me out, Michigan State's secondary is horrible, god awful really. They have a solid interior line and run stopping linebackers, but in the passing game they are atrocious. How bad are they? They rank 127th out of 130 in passing yards allowed a game. Purdue on the other hand has the 16th best passing offense in the country. And while MSU's bend but don't break defense is really good at forcing teams to kick field goals in the red zone, where they've struggled is against the pass. They've only given up 4 rushing touchdowns but 10 passing touchdowns in the scoring area. Meanwhile Purdue has thrown 12 touchdowns in the red zone. If there was an upset to be had this weekend in the Big Ten it would most likely come from this match up - And I am taking it, call me a hater but Purdue blows up the season beating MSU. Purdue 41 MSU 37.

Wisconsin @ Rutgers - Wisconsin is the most confusing team in the Big Ten, after starting 1-3 and getting blown out by Notre Dame and Michigan they've now won four straight including wins against #25 Purdue and #9 Iowa last week. Graham Mertz still isn't throwing the ball well, he only completed 50% of his passes in their last game, but he's utilizing his running ability more, scoring two touchdowns on the ground. Where Wisconsin is really making their money is on the defensive side of the ball. They are currently the #1 ranked defense in the country, and last week they held Iowa to 24 rushing yards on 30 carries while also forcing three fumbles. Rutgers meanwhile is coming off of a 20-14 win vs Illinois but they really didn't do anything notable, scoring 20 points for the first time in Big Ten play was probably the most notable thing. The Scarlet Knights are sitting at 4-4 overall but only 1-4 in Big Ten play so far in Greg Schiano's 2nd year back at the helm. Their offense has not really taken off this year as they are averaging 13.2 points per game against Big Ten opponents. Not a great time to be going against the #1 defense. Wisconsin may be bad offensively, but Rutgers is worse. Wisconsin 31 Rutgers 3.

Penn State @ Maryland. Penn State has started to fall off a nit, losing three straight including a nine point loss last week to Ohio State and falling out of the top 25. Maryland is coming off a three point win where Taulia Tagovailoa threw for 419 yards and two touchdowns. Penn State is the better team, but I don't know which Penn State is going to show up; the team that beat Auburn 28-20? Or the team that fell to Illinois 20-18? James Franklin's name has been flying around the coaching rumor mill the last few weeks, if he wants to save this season from becoming an utter disaster then he is going to have to get control of his team and come away with a resounding victory before taking on Michigan. Penn State's defense should be enough to shut down Maryland, Taulia has had some great games against lesser competition, but against quality defenses he struggles. I expect Penn State to get back on track heading into their week against the Wolverines. Penn State 34 Maryland 17.

Iowa @ Northwestern - It feels like forever ago that Iowa was ranked #3 in the country and coming off of a 23-20 win over Penn State. Two straight losses to Purdue and Wisconsin where they only mustered seven points each game has dropped them to #22 in the polls and needing a victory to keep their hopes in the Big Ten West alive. I picked Iowa to bounce back from their Purdue debacle against Wisconsin last week and it bit me in the butt as my only loss. This week I think it's a safer pick, Northwestern is just plain bad this season. They are currently 3-5 and 1-4 in the conference, in their five losses they've lost by an average score of 40-14. Their total defense currently ranks 96th in the country and their offense is 110th. Iowa needs to rebound in a big way and I think they have the perfect opponent for that. Iowa 27 Northwestern 14.

Indiana @ Michigan - For some reason they made this a night game? Maybe the television folks know something I don't. Indiana did beat Michigan last season for the first time in my lifetime, their last win prior to that was 1987. Michael Penix Jr torched Michigan's secondary for 342 yards and three touchdowns. Penix isn't playing in this game though, his injury has left IU starting 3rd stringer and true freshman Donovan McCulley - under the lights - in the Big House, facing the 14th best total defense, 10th best scoring defense and 15th best passing defense in the country. Oh yeah, and two defensive ends who tend to have a field day in opponents backfields. Aidan Hutchinson has an overall pass rush grade of 93.3, the highest in the country. He is getting pressure on 21% of drop backs and he has six sacks through eight games. Hutchinson's partner in crime David Ojabo is having a coming out party this year. After playing sparingly his first two years on campus the 6-5 250 lb. Junior has become one of the best pass rushers in the country. Ojabo currently ranks 5th with a grade of 89.1 and has seven sacks and three forced fumbles on the year. Michigan's offense should be able to put points up on Indiana's defense that ranks 105th in scoring, which should lead to Indiana into passing situations. I don't like the true freshman's chances in this game. Indiana's defense keeps them in it for a while but Michigan breaks their back with a long passing play and Michigan bounces back from their loss last weekend. Michigan 37 Indiana 14. 

Zak - Go Blue (6-1)             Ryan - Go Blue (2-5)                        Morgan - O-H (3-4)
OSU                                     OSU                                                  THE OSU

Minnesota                            Minnesota                                         Minnesota

Purdue                                  MSU                                                 MSU

Wisconsin                            Wisconsin                                          Wisconsin

Penn State                            Penn State                                          Penn State

Iowa                                     Iowa                                                   Iowa

Michigan                              Michigan                                           Michigan