Big Ten - Final Week Preview

The college football regular season is winding down, with eyes starting to shift to conference championship games and projected bowl berths we have one final weekend of Big Ten action - and it's for all the marbles. 

Iowa @ Nebraska - The Friday night game of the week is the battle for who has the better corn field. Nebraska has been the best worst team all season long. The Cornhuskers are 3-8 (1-7) and have lost 5 straight. Unsurprisingly is they've lost seven of those eight games by one possession scores, their average margin of defeat is 6 points per game. A touchdown a game is the difference between them leading the Big Ten West and their current position of next to last. They have a magical habit of finding new ways to lose games, and I would expect nothing less this week as the 16th ranked Iowa Hawkeyes (9-2, 6-2) come to town still competing for the Big Ten West crown. Iowa has to win this game and hope for a Wisconsin loss to stamp their ticket to Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship game. Nebraska has the more explosive offense, although they are more prone to turnovers as well especially in quarterback Adrian Martinez. Martinez has thrown 10 interceptions and lost seven fumbles so far this season. He is on pace to set the record for most lost fumbles in a career at Nebraska. Not a great stat when going against the nation's #3 defense in turnovers created. Iowa's offense is dismal, but their defense will do enough to keep them in the lead and eventually win by a one possession score. Iowa 24 - Nebraska 21.

Maryland @ Rutgers - The battle for bowl eligibility, both teams come into this game at 5-6 (2-6) and need a win for a shot at making a bowl game. Maryland is coming off of a 59-18 beat down against Michigan while the Scarlet Knights were shut out 28-0 vs Penn State last week. Both teams also have gotten their 2 Big Ten wins against the same opponents, Indiana and Illinois. Maryland has the better offense but are in a three game losing skid, Rutgers is 2-2 in their last four games but they've only scored more than 20 points in Big Ten play once this season. I made a mistake of picking IU over Rutgers a couple of weeks ago and it was my worst pick of the season so far (Rutgers won 38-3). Maryland revenges me and becomes bowl eligible thanks to the stellar play of Taulia Tagovailoa against an inferior defense. Maryland 38 - Rutgers 24.

Penn State @ Michigan State - The beat down of the season happened last week when Ohio State put 49 on the Spartans......in the first half. At the break it was 49-0 and it finished by the same margin 56-7. Michigan State's secondary is still very bad, the worst in the country in fact. Purdue exposed them and gave everyone the game plan when playing the Spartans. After starting 7-0 MSU is 2-2 in their last four games giving up an average of 430 yards and 3.25 touchdowns through the air. Penn State doesn't have the most imposing passing offense, ranked 25th in the nation with 270 passing yards a game. Quarterback Sean Clifford has been adequate this season, completing 61% of his passes for 2,599 yards, 17 touchdowns to only six interceptions. They do, however, have an explosive wide receiver in Jahan Dotson who has 83 catches for 1,045 yards and 10 touchdowns. I look for Penn State to try and duplicate Purdue's offense vs the Spartans were Biletnikoff finalist David Bell had 11 catches for 217 yards and a touchdown. If Mel Tucker and Michigan State want to avoid the November slide losing three of their last four then they are going to have to go back to what took them to 8-0, give the ball to Heisman candidate Kenneth Walker early and often. Walker only had six carries for 25 yards last week against the Buckeyes, but it became difficult for Michigan State to rely on the rushing attack when the score was 21-0 before you could blink. The best chance for Michigan State to win this game and reach the 10 win mark and possibly New Year’s six bowl game is to keep their defense off of the field and control the game on the ground. If they do that then they should win this game, if they don't - well then that $95 million extension that Mel Tucker is reportedly ready to sign might not happen after all. I'm taking Penn State in this one in part of Johan Dotson having a huge day. Penn State 38 - Michigan State 28. (Editors note, Mel Tucker reportedly has signed the new 10 year $95 million deal tonight after this was posted. Correct the "might not happen after all" to "the best coaches scam in history")

Northwestern @ Illinois - The battle of the best in the state of Illinois is expected to be a real barn burner (insert sarcastic meme here), as the 3-8 (1-7) Northwestern Wildcats travel to Champaign, Illinois to take on the 4-7 (3-5) Fighting Illini. Pat Fitzgerald is on the verge of having his second 3-9 season in three years if he can't pull this one off. Usually known for their toughness and never quit attitude, the Wildcats have been more of the lay down and get run over team this season. Illinois on the other hand has had themselves quite the odd season in Bret Bielema's first season at the helm. In the last four weeks they've beaten top 25 teams Penn State and Minnesota on the road but lost at home to Rutgers. Neither team is crushing it offensively, both are averaging around the 17 point mark, Illinois' defense has the edge though as Northwestern has been ran through more than a Tai hooker when an aircraft carrier pulls in. The Wildcats have the 118th ranked rushing defense giving up 214 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game on the ground. Because of that Illinois finishes year 1 under Bielema on a high note. Illinois 21 - Northwestern 13. 

Indiana @ Purdue - The Old Oaken Bucket game may get ugly early. Indiana (2-9, 0-8) has yet to win a Big Ten game all season after going 6-1 in conference last season. The Hoosiers are ranked 70th in passing defense and 104th in scoring defense. Meanwhile Purdue is the 7th ranked passing offense in the nation and has a Biletnikoff finalist in wide receiver David Bell. Rivalry game be damned, Purdue 42 - Indiana 10. 

Wisconsin @ Minnesota - Rivalry weekend wouldn't be complete without the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe. It's also the game that could potentially decide the Big Ten West. It's complicated for Minnesota (7-4, 5-3), very easy for Wisconsin (8-3, 6-2). If Wisconsin wins then they will head to Indianapolis for the 7th time because they beat Iowa. If Minnesota and Iowa win, then Iowa will head to Indy. And if Minnesota wins and the Hawkeyes lose, then the Golden Gophers will travel to Indy for the first time ever. No pressure. Wisconsin has been on a tear lately. After starting 1-3 the Badgers have won seven straight games, going back to the Wisconsin of old they've shunned the pass only throwing it 18 times a game and relying on a heavy rushing attack going for 267 yards and three touchdowns a game during their winning streak. They have found their new go to running back in freshman Braelon Allen, he's racked up 1,013 yards and 11 touchdowns during the seven game winning streak. Minnesota on the other hand has lost two of their last three, and while they do have the 13th ranked rushing defense Iowa's is ranked 12th and Wisconsin beat them 27-7. Minnesota is going to have to stack the box and force Graham Mertz to beat them. Mertz has played better of late, but that was against lesser competition. The game plan is simple, if Minnesota shuts down Allen then they win. If they don't - well 7-5 is going to leave a bitter taste for a team that started 6-2. I'm betting on they don't, and Wisconsin heads to Indianapolis. Wisconsin 35 - Minnesota 17.

(2) Ohio State @ (5) Michigan - The greatest rivalry in sports, the only game that matters - The Game! The Buckeyes and Wolverines clash in the final week of November, and this time it's for all the marbles. Michigan (10-1, 7-1) have won three straight since the comeback loss against MSU. Meanwhile Ohio State (10-1, 8-0) is firing on all cylinders and as per usual seem to be hitting their stride going into the most important game of the year. Ryan Day continues his undefeated run in Big Ten play, meanwhile Jim Harbaugh is trying to get his first win vs the Buckeyes (0-5 did not play last year due to COVID) since taking over the reins at his alma mater. On paper this looks to be a fire meets steel match up as the #1 scoring and #6 passing offense takes on the #7 scoring and #8 passing defense. We have seen this before though. In 2018 Michigan entered the game on a 10 game winning streak with the #1 defense in the country and Dwayne Haskins and the Buckeyes shredded them for 400 yards and six touchdowns passing in 62-39 shellacking. The following year the Buckeyes almost matched that total putting up 56 on the Wolverines, leading to the firing of defensive coordinator Don Brown. New defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald enters this game receiving high praise for the job he's done with this Michigan defense - he has yet to be in The Game though and the different beast that comes with coaching against the most explosive offense in the country. The game plan for OSU is simple, score early and often and force Michigan to play out of their comfort zone by abandoning the run (see Michigan State game for example). If Michigan wants to end the 8 game losing streak against the Buckeyes and get to the Big Ten title game for the first time they will need to play flawless on both sides of the ball and come in with a great game plan. Talent wise OSU is just better, but if Michigan doesn't get into a shootout with the Buckeyes then they have a chance. Michigan is going to have to control the ball, long, sustained drives that end in touchdowns - not field goals. Quarterback Cade McNamara has to continue to be a game manager and extend drives by converting 3rd down throws. Force a turnover or two on special teams or defense (Jay Harbaugh's unit has been excellent this season) and make the Buckeyes drive the length of the field. The biggest key is get the young quarterback C.J. Stroud under duress early and often with zone coverage in the back end. If Ojabo and Hutchinson can pressure OSU and the Michigan offense controls the clock and scores touchdowns in the red zone then Michigan wins. If not, then it'll be nine straight for the Buckeyes and 0-6 for Harbaugh. This is the best chance Harbaugh has had to get that elusive first win since 2016, if he ever wants to hope to narrow the talent gap this is the game he's going to have to pull off - And he does. Michigan 38 - Ohio State 35.