Big Ten Week 9 Preview

 We're halfway through the week leading up to the Week 9 matchups in the Big Ten. I'll be breaking down each match up and our contributors will be making their picks for who they believe will win the games. 

Michigan @ Michigan State - I am going to be doing an in depth breakdown for this matchup in our next post. But I'll say this now, this is a rivalry game, the numbers and statistics in that breakdown don't really matter. Personally I believe this game is going to be less about the Jimmy's and the Joe's and more about the X's and the O's. In saying that I personally give the advantage to Mel Tucker and the Spartans until Harbaugh and co. prove otherwise. MSU 24 Mich 21

Iowa @ Wisconsin - This season has not gone the way the Badger faithful anticipated. While their defense is as solid as expected, especially in the run game with the #1 ranked rushing defense in the country, their offense has taken about 5 steps backwards. Graham Mertz, the highest rated QB prospect to ever sign with Wisconsin, who had some impressive games last season as a true freshman is in a serious sophomore slump throwing for only 2 TDs and 7 INTs. Meanwhile the strong rushing attack that Wisconsin is known for had been lacking until last week. Wisconsin went to #25 ranked Purdue and blasted the Boilermakers for 290 yards rushing and 3 TDs. Maybe Paul Chryst has taken a page out of Jim Harbaugh's playbook by only throwing the ball 8 times and rushing 51 times. It worked last week but this week is a different beast as #9 Iowa comes to town following their bye week. The last time we saw the Hawkeyes play we witnessed them being embarrassed by those same Boilermakers at Kinnick 24-7. Purdue did it through the air though, passing for 378 yards and 2 TDs. Wisconsin more than likely will not have that same level of success through the air and will have to rely on a ground attack against a defense who only gives up 89 yards a game on the ground and 2.7 yards a carry, 7th best in the nation. While Iowa has nothing to brag about on the offensive side of the ball, Ferentz ball has gotten them to 6-1 so far and a win over Penn State. I expect this to be a defensive slugfest with both teams who rely heavily on the ground game for success going against 2 of the best run defenses in the country. The passing edge goes to Iowa though and because of that I give them the overall edge winning this game Iowa 16 - Wis 9.

Rutgers @ Illinois - 2 coaches trying to recreate some level of glory that they once had, Bret Bielema is trying to succeed at his 2nd different Big Ten team in Illinois after going 68-24 at Wisconsin over 7 seasons, and Greg Schiano trying to bring back some of his magic at Rutgers where he once upon a time went 11-2. So far both seem to be struggling to find consistent success. Rutgers is sitting at 3-4 and 0-4 in the Big Ten. While Illinois is 3-5 and 2-3 in the Big Ten. In fairness to Schiano the 4 Big Ten losses are to teams with a combined record of 23-4. However they have yet to score more than 13 points in Big Ten play. Illinois meanwhile is coming off of a signature, 9 OT win vs Penn State in Happy Valley that shocked the college football world. Not just with Illinois winning, but with both teams seemingly incapable of scoring from 3 yards out over and over again. In this, what is sure to be a “barnburner” match-up, the numbers favor Rutgers. Illinois' defense is giving up over 400 yards a game, they're scoring 18 points per game while giving up 24 points per game. With that said.....I'm still going with Rutgers because of Noah Vedral under center. Rutgers 24 - Illinois 17.

Indiana @ Maryland - If we're speaking of disappointments, there is no bigger disappointment in the Big Ten then that of the Hoosiers. Coming off of a 6-2 shortened COVID season, expectations were high in Bloomington and nationally as they entered the season in the preseason top 25 at #16. With star players QB Michael Penix and LB Micah McFadden coming back the sky seemed the limit for a team that took defending Big Ten Champs OSU down the wire 35-42 last season. However injuries, especially at the QB position have left them limited. That's not the biggest let down on this year’s IU team though; last season the Indiana defense forced 20 turnovers including 17 INTS and as a team had a turnover margin of +8, good enough for 14th in the country. This year’s team is sitting at 8 takeaways through 7 games and has a turnover margin of -4. That combined with having the hardest SOS in the country, having played 5 teams who are in the top 25 (4 in the top 10) does not make for a successful season. Sitting at 2-5 and 0-4 in the Big Ten with scoring only 28 total points in Big Ten play Tom Allen is going to have to get his team to do some soul searching going into the back end of the season starting with Maryland on Saturday. Speaking of Maryland, the Terps started the season on fire, beginning the season 4-0 and looking to make some noise in the strong Big Ten East. However 3 straight losses by an average score of 50-16 has brought them back down to earth. A lot of the early success and subsequent downfall rests on the shoulders of QB Taulia Tagovailoa who started that 4-0 stretch looking like he'd follow in his brother's footsteps on the way to a Heisman like season throwing for 1,340 yds, 10 TDS and only 1 INT. However, during the 3 game skid he has only thrown for 625 yds, 5 TDs and 7 INTs as well as taking 7 sacks. If Maryland wants to turn this season back around a lot of it rests on #3 taking care of the ball and generating big plays, especially with the defense giving up almost 30 points per game. Indiana is a great team to start that turnaround especially with their injury woes. Maryland 28 - IU 14.

Minnesota @ Northwestern - Pat Fitzgerald teams always have a toughness about them, a no quit attitude, however losing 2 of the last 3 against Nebraska and Michigan by a combined score of 89-14 has worn off some of the mystique. Not a great time for them to be playing a resurgent Minnesota team who's won 3 straight and have seem to found a replacement for injured star RB Trey Potts in 2 Freshman Mar'Keise Irving and Ky Thomas. Both topped the 100 yard rushing mark last week against Maryland and as long as Tanner Morgan can avoid turnovers and continue being a game manager then P. J. Fleck and Minnesota should be rowing their boat to 4 straight. Minny 31 NW 17.

Purdue @ Nebraska - The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde game. Which Purdue team will show up? The one that beat #9 Iowa 24-7 on the road? Or the one that gave up 290 yards rushing to Wisconsin in a 30-13 loss at home? What magical way will Nebraska find to lose this game? Nebraska is 3-5 and have lost all 5 games by 1 possession scores. They can consider themselves the best 3-5 team all that they want, there are no trophies for the best worst team in the Big Ten, nor are there asterisk for most improved team at traditional powers like Nebraska. Scott Frost has to start getting some W's next to his name otherwise Nebraska will be saying so long to their favored son and hitting the coaching carousel yet again. On the other sideline Jeff Brohm continues his inconsistent run with the Boilermakers. After going 30-10 at WKU he started off at Purdue with an above .500 record of 7-6 and a bowl win. However he has yet to have an above .500 record since that first season. Sitting at 4-3 a win against Nebraska would put Purdue in great position to finish this season at 7-5 with Northwestern and Indiana still on the schedule. I'm not going to bet on Purdue but I am going to bet on Nebraska's ability to blow games late. Purdue 31 - Neb 28.

Penn State @ Ohio State - James Franklin's name is getting thrown around for the coaching openings at USC and LSU, he held his weekly press conference and said they were focused on playing Illinois at the Big House. Meanwhile OSU is scoring 55 points per game since their loss to Oregon. Do I even have to break this one down?? OSU 56 PSU 14.

 

Contributor Picks

Zak - Go Blue                    Ryan - Go Blue                    Morgan - O-H

MSU                                    Michigan                               MSU

Iowa                                     Iowa                                      Iowa

Rutgers                                 Illinois                                  Illinois

UMD                                    UMD                                    Indiana

Minny                                   NW                                       NW

Purdue                                   Nebraska                              Purdue

OSU                                      OSU                                     THE OSU